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  • chemikills
    chemikills writes: (22 December 2014 20:31)
    ESBO GW 16 Player Score Projections

    ESBO is a Fantasy Premier League gameweek score predicton based on bookies betting odds


    ESBO gives an inherently objective way of predicting gameweek performance and is useful for making "this or that" decisions around your transfers, your captaincy or your starting players for the week.


    It is constructed using the implied probabilities from bookie odds (copied from Oddschecker) for goals, assists and clean sheets and weighting them to the FPL scoring system. It's important to remember that the odds will assume the best case scenario of the player starting and if the player can play in multiple positions, generally the more advanced will be assumed. I have assessed some players as unlikely to start but have left some that may start.


    If this is the first time your reading an article on ESBO you can find more information on the Intuition & Method and Interpretation of ESBO in the 2nd half of gameweek 3s article here


    The ESBO values include appearance points and Goal/Assists/Clean Sheet points.

    ESBO* additionally includes bonus point regression estimates. For more on how the bonus point estimates were calculated, see my article here.

    GW16 Top Score Projections

    AG = Anytime Goal, AA = Anytime assist, CS= Clean Sheet

    ESBO* = ESBO with bonus point regression estimates added for G/A/CS and Centre-back Clean Sheet bonus


    Chelsea have overrun the ESBO predictions this week with the highest clean sheet percentage I've seen all season and good scoring chances through most of their midfield leading to all but Ramires featuring in the top 25. Hazard, Mata or Schurrle could easily be replaced by Oscar in the starting lineup, it's anybodies guess so I've gone with consistency. Despite that Lukaku manages to top the predictions with a fairly healthy margin. Mirallas, Deulofeu, Coleman and Barkley also feature in the top 25, although Mirallas or Deulofeu may cancel the other out I've chosen leave them both in the chance that Pienaar might make way. A depleted Liverpool midfield sees Suarez ranked down to 10 for their clash with Spurs. Andy Carroll is no certainty to start, but reports suggest he maybe recalled by Allardyce. EDIT: Carroll has been ruled out


    Removed from the top 25 this week due to unlikeliness to start are Eto'o, Oscar, Ba, Jelavic, Luiz, Willian, Hernandez, Azpilicueta & Heitinga

    ESBO GW 16 Dream Team

    Top 20 ESBO Scorers by position (max 2 per team)

    To ensure diversity, a maximum of 2 players from one team have been listed in the following tables. The scores for other players can be seen in the spreadsheet linked later in the article, these tables are listed alongside so it's easy to see whose been omitted (due to being ranked 3+ within a team or being unlikely to start)

    Forwards

    Midfielders

    Defenders

    GW 16 Clean Shot Odds

    ESBO GW16 Spreadsheet

    As usual all ESBO scores for Gameweek 16 sorted by top score, position & team at the following link:

    ESBO Spreadsheet